Bianki Unveils Book on Nigeria’s Political Elites, Voter Behaviour Ahead of 2027 Elections

Published by Sola Akingbiye, 19 October, 2026

Political psychologist and campaign strategist, Dr Valentin Bianki, has presented the English edition of his book, Politics in Nigeria: Elites and Voters, examining electoral competition, voter behaviour and the distribution of political power in Nigeria ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The book was unveiled at the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja, where political analysts, journalists and other stakeholders discussed the findings of the research and their implications for Nigeria’s democratic development.

The presentation focused on the 2023 general elections, political mobilisation, regional representation, digital campaigning and the relationship between electoral performance and the allocation of political appointments and federal resources.

The session was moderated by communications specialist and ARISE News foreign correspondent, Alkasim Abdulkadir, while Abuja-based journalist and compère Mbazan Anongo hosted the question-and-answer session.

Drawing on electoral data and extensive research, Bianki argued that Nigeria’s democratic performance should not be judged exclusively by international democracy rankings, noting that the country continues to experience competitive elections, uncertain outcomes and challenges to established political power.

He described the 2023 presidential election as the most open contest since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999, with four major candidates attracting considerable support across different regions.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu won the election with 36.6 per cent of the votes, the lowest winning share recorded in a Nigerian presidential election since 1999, according to the research.

Bianki said Nigeria’s ability to accommodate competing interests and manage disagreements remained an important aspect of its democratic resilience.

“Nigeria’s resilience is not the absence of conflict; it is an extraordinary capacity to live with conflict,” he said.

The author also examined the influence of social media on electoral outcomes, using an analysis of 5.9 million Twitter accounts and 2.3 million tweets from the 2023 election period.

His findings showed that Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi dominated significant portions of online political discussions but finished third in the presidential election.

Bianki attributed the gap between online popularity and electoral performance partly to geographical disparities in internet engagement, the participation of Nigerians in the diaspora who could not vote, and the limitations of online and telephone polling.

He noted that politically active Twitter users were concentrated in Lagos and the South-West, making online conversations an incomplete representation of the country’s wider electorate.

With voter turnout standing at 26.7 per cent, he argued that digital engagement alone could not guarantee success without effective grassroots organisation and voter mobilisation.

“Votes are individual. Mobilisation is not,” he said.

According to him, political parties must develop the organisational structures required to convert public support into votes across communities and constituencies.

Study links election results to political appointments

The book further examines the relationship between presidential electoral performance and the distribution of political appointments and federal resources across Nigeria’s geopolitical zones.

Using a hand-coded dataset of federal ministers appointed since 2010, Bianki identified a correlation between the proportion of votes a presidential candidate received from a geopolitical zone and the zone’s representation in the federal cabinet.

The research also examined the relationship between cabinet representation and federal transfers across geopolitical zones, excluding the oil-producing South-South region from that particular comparison.

Following the 2023 elections, the North-West’s share of cabinet positions declined from 27 per cent to 19 per cent, while its share of federal transfers fell from 16 per cent to 14 per cent, the study found.

Bianki also discussed the geographical distribution of the August 2024 #EndBadGovernance protests, observing that demonstrations were concentrated in northern Nigeria, while the South experienced comparatively limited activity.

The findings raised questions about the influence of electoral alliances on political representation, regional expectations and the distribution of federal resources.

Another aspect of the research focused on changes in the age profile of Nigeria’s political leadership.

Bianki’s analysis found that the average year of birth of ministers serving under Tinubu was 1966, compared with 1957 under the administrations of former Presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari.

The study also examined the declining representation of the generation that experienced the Nigerian Civil War, described in the book as the “Never Again” generation.

According to the findings, members of this generation accounted for 14 per cent of Tinubu’s cabinet, while the proportion of ministers born after 1971 increased from three per cent to 20 per cent.

Bianki said the shift could have implications for institutional continuity, political decision-making and the informal restraints that have historically shaped the conduct of Nigeria’s governing elite.

He stressed that strengthening institutions would become increasingly important as fewer members of the country’s political leadership retained direct memories of the Civil War.

Looking ahead to the 2027 general elections, the author said emerging political alignments would be influenced by the rivalries, alliances and lessons of the 2023 elections.

He cautioned that public dissatisfaction with the government would not automatically translate into electoral success for opposition parties, arguing that effective coordination and grassroots mobilisation would be critical.

“Dissatisfaction is real; coordination is the scarce resource. Dissatisfaction is an emotion. Opposition is an organisation,” he said.

Bianki added that Nigerian voters would ultimately determine the outcome of the next election.

He called for a political environment that sustains democratic competition without undermining national stability.

“My hope for Nigeria is simple: preserve stability without sacrificing democracy, and preserve democracy without sacrificing stability,” he said.

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, who served from 2023 to 2026, endorsed the publication in a review, praising its analytical rigour and evidence-based approach to understanding Nigeria’s political system.

Tuggar described the book as offering “analytical rigour and a careful, effective use of data driven evidence”, adding that such an approach remained uncommon in external assessments of African political systems.

Published by Fortis Press in 2026, Politics in Nigeria: Elites and Voters examines the 2023 general elections, the first two years of the Tinubu administration and the processes through which Nigeria’s political elite is recruited.

The 292-page book draws on more than 550 references and original research conducted by Bianki and his team.

The English edition is currently available as a limited preprint, with the author seeking a Nigerian publishing partner to facilitate the release of a full edition before the 2027 general elections.

Bianki has also invited Nigerian publishers, universities, research institutes, think tanks and media organisations to explore opportunities for collaboration and engage with the research findings.